Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods

Five initialization and ensemble generation methods are investigated with respect to their impact on the prediction skill of the German decadal prediction system “Mittelfristige Klimaprognose” (MiKlip). Among the tested methods, three tackle aspects of model‐consistent initialization using the ensemble Kalman filter, the filtered anomaly initialization, and the initialization method by partially coupled spin‐up (MODINI). The remaining two methods alter the ensemble generation: the ensemble dispersion filter corrects each ensemble member with the ensemble mean during model integration. And the bred vectors perturb the climate state using the fastest growing modes. The new methods are compared against the latest MiKlip system in the low‐resolution configuration (Preop‐LR), which uses lagging the climate state by a few days for ensemble generation and nudging toward ocean and atmosphere reanalyses for initialization. Results show that the tested methods provide an added value for the prediction skill as compared to Preop‐LR in that they improve prediction skill over the eastern and central Pacific and different regions in the North Atlantic Ocean. In this respect, the ensemble Kalman filter and filtered anomaly initialization show the most distinct improvements over Preop‐LR for surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content, followed by the bred vectors, the ensemble dispersion filter, and MODINI. However, no single method exists that is superior to the others with respect to all metrics considered. In particular, all methods affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in different ways, both with respect to the basin‐wide long‐term mean and variability and with respect to the temporal evolution at the 26° N latitude

Determinants of short-period heart rate variability in the general population

Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with a worse prognosis in a variety of diseases and disorders. We evaluated the determinants of short-period HRV in a random sample of 149 middle-aged men and 137 women from the general population. Spectral analysis was used to compute low-frequency (LF), high-frequency (HF) and total-frequency power. HRV showed a strong inverse association with age and heart rate in both sexes with a more pronounced effect of heart rate on HRV in women. Age and heart rate-adjusted LF was significantly higher in men and HF higher in women. Significant negative correlations of BMI, triglycerides, insulin and positive correlations of HDL cholesterol with LF and total power occurred only in men. In multivariate analyses, heart rate and age persisted as prominent independent predictors of HRV. In addition, BMI was strongly negatively associated with LF in men but not in women, We conclude that the more pronounced vagal influence in cardiac regulation in middle-aged women and the gender-different influence of heart rate and metabolic factors on HRV may help to explain the lower susceptibility of women for cardiac arrhythmias. Copyright (C) 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

On the orthogonalization of bred vectors

The key to the improvement of the quality of ensemble forecasts assessing the inherent flow uncertainties is the choice of the initial ensemble perturbations. To generate such perturbations, the breeding of growing modes approach has been used for the past two decades. Here, the fastest-growing error modes of the initial model state are estimated. However, the resulting bred vectors (BVs) mainly point in the phase space direction of the leading Lyapunov vector and therefore favor one direction of growing errors. To overcome this characteristic and obtain growing modes pointing to Lyapunov vectors different from the leading one, an orthogonalization implemented as a singular value decomposition based on the similarity between the BVs is applied. This transformation is similar to that used in the ensemble transform technique currently in operational use at NCEP but with certain differences in the metric used and in the implementation. In this study, results of this approach us! ing BVs generated in the Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) based on the global numerical weather prediction model GME of the German Meteorological Service are presented. The gain in forecast performance achieved with the orthogonalized BV initialization is shown by using different probabilistic forecast scores evaluating ensemble reliability, variance, and resolution. For a 3-month period in summer 2007, the results are compared to forecasts generated with simple BV initializations of the same ensemble prediction system as well as operational ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and NCEP. The orthogonalization vastly improves the GME-EFS scores and makes them competitive with the two other centers

Putting theory oriented evaluation into practice

Evaluations of gaming simulations and business games as teaching devices are typically end-state driven. This emphasis fails to detect how the simulation being evaluated does or does not bring about its desired consequences. This paper advances the use of a logic model approach which possesses a holistic perspective that aims at including all elements associated with the situation created by a game. The use of the logic model approach is illustrated as applied to Simgame, a board game created for secondary school level business education in six European Union countries

European Core Health Indicators - status and perspectives.

The European Core Health Indicators (ECHI) are a key source of comparable health information for the European Union (EU) and its Member States (MS). The ECHI shortlist contains 88 indicators which were developed by experts from MS and international organisations. Most indicators are derived from data sources at the EU's statistical office (Eurostat), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and are available for most MS. The remaining indicators on the shortlist are at different stages of conceptual and/or methodological development. The indicators have been reviewed in the past against scientific developments, changes in data collections and emerging policy needs, yet not as part of a systematic and sustainable procedure. There is also no regular inventory of problems met by the MS in collecting the necessary data. Work package 4 of the BRIDGE Health project aimed at updating and improving the existing ECHI-indicator knowledge and expertise and at strengthening the scientific base that supports the effective development and use of health indicators for health policy evaluation and prioritization by the EU and its MS. The aim of this paper is to present a first overview of its outcomes and to explore issues concerning the ECHI data availability, content and policy relevance, update process and accessibility to stakeholders, in light of working towards a sustainable future

Long survival of primary diffuse leptomeningeal gliomatosis following radiotherapy and temozolomide: case report and literature review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>Primary diffuse leptomeningeal gliomatosis (PDLG) is a rare neoplasm with a short survival time of a few months. there is currently no standardized therapeutic approach for PDLG.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>We report on a 53-year-old male patient who presented with epileptic seizures, gait disturbance, paraparesis and sensory deficits in the dermatomes T8-10.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealing numerous spinal and cranial gadolinium-enhancing nodules in the meninges and histopathology led us to diagnose primary diffuse leptomeningeal gliomatosis with WHO grade III astrocytic cells. Consecutively, the patient underwent craniospinal radiotherapy (30 Gy) and 11 sequential cycles of temozolomide. This regimen led to partial tumor regression. Thirteen months later, spinal MRI revealed tumor progression. Second-line chemotherapy with 5 cycles of irinotecan and bevacizumab did not prevent further clinical deterioration. The patient died twenty-two months after diagnosis, being the longest survival time described thus far with respect to PDLG consisting of astrocytic tumor cells.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Radiochemotherapy including temozolomide, as established standard therapy for brain malignant astrocytomas, might be valid as a basic therapeutic strategy for this PDLG subtype.</p

A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are pre-dicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes of evolutionary adaptation, they conform to disturbance theories, and they indicate that consistent rules may govern ecosystem susceptibility to tropical cyclones

Use of a dual reporter plasmid to demonstrate bactofection with an attenuated aroa- derivative of Pasteurella multocida b:2

A reporter plasmid pSRG has been developed which expresses red fluorescent protein (RFP) from a constitutive prokaryotic promoter within Pasteurella multocida B:2 and green fluorescent protein (GFP) from a constitutive eukaryotic promoter within mammalian cells. This construct has been used to determine the location and viability of the bacteria when moving from the extracellular environment into the intracellular compartment of mammalian cells. Invasion assays with embryonic bovine lung (EBL) cells and an attenuated AroA- derivative of Pasteurella multocida B:2 (strain JRMT12), harbouring the plasmid pSRG, showed that RFP-expressing bacteria could be detected intracellularly at 3 h post-invasion. At this stage, some EBL cells harbouring RFP-expressing bacteria were observed to express GFP simultaneously, indicating release of the plasmid into the intracellular environment. At 5 h post-invasion, more EBL cells were expressing GFP, while still harbouring RFP-expressing bacteria. Concurrently, some EBL cells were shown to express only GFP, indicating loss of viable bacteria within these cells. These experiments proved the functionality of the pSRG dual reporter system and the potential of P. multocida B:2 JRMT12 for bactofection and delivery of a DNA vaccine